The Battle Field

II. The Battlefield: Centrifugal Forces & The Bimodal House

1. The Death of the Bell Curve (Figure 6)

Historically, voters were distributed like a bell curve—most in the middle, few at the edges. In that world, the winning strategy was centripetal: moving toward the center to get the most votes.

• Current Reality: The House is now defined by centrifugal forces. The distribution is bimodal (two separate humps with a valley in between).

• The Squeeze: Moderate factions and third-party-style movements are increasingly squeezed. As their vote share declines in a plurality system, they are often pushed toward "extreme equilibrium positions" just to differentiate themselves.

2. Why the Center is Hard to Hold (The Cox Insight)

Political Scientist Gary Cox (1990) identified that specific electoral rules create "centrifugal incentives" that push candidates apart.

• While our single-member districts should theoretically encourage moderation, the current environment of safe seats and gerrymandering has warped this.

• The Threat: The system currently rewards ideological dispersion. The pressure you feel to adopt "purist" positions is not just social; it is a structural feature of how modern coalitions are built.