The Primary Dilemma

III. The Primary Dilemma: Asymmetric Warfare

A critical finding from recent research on Partisan Communication is that Democrats and Republicans do not play the same game. Understanding this asymmetry is vital for your strategy in FL-05.

1. The Democratic "Fake-Out"

Research on candidate positioning reveals a pattern unique to Democrats:

• Artificial Extremism: Losing Democratic candidates in recent cycles were found to have "moderated significantly" after their primary defeat.

• The Implication: This suggests their primary rhetoric was a strategic affectation—they "faked" being further left to appease activists, planning to pivot later.

• The Risk for You: If you try to out-left the "policy demanders" (activists/groups) in the primary, you risk losing your authentic "Democratic Capitalist" brand. If you don't, you risk being outflanked.

2. Republican Consistency

Conversely, Republican candidates generally show no such moderation effect. Their primary language and general election language remain consistent. They do not feel the need to pivot; they believe their primary base is the general electorate.

3. The "Policy Demander" Problem

The pressure to move left does not come from the average primary voter. It comes from:

• Elites & Activists: Who demand ideological purity.

• Misperception: Candidates often believe primary voters are more extreme than they actually are.

• Data Reality: Most primary voters are less ideological than the activists claiming to speak for them.